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July 18, 2005
More Democrats Unhappy With Their Vote in 2004
Whoever you voted for as President in 2004, are you happy with that vote?
This is the question 7,136 respondents answered from The Polling Station survey.
Before coming to any conclusions, realize that this poll question asks if you were happy for the vote you cast in 2004, regardless of who it was for, winner of loser. (This is not a question asking about the outcome of the election.) We could assume that anyone unhappy with their vote would have voted for the other candidate, but that is is discussion for another day.
N = 7,136 Margin of Error +/- 1.5%
........ Yes ...... No .... UndecidedDem .... 76.4% .... 18.8% ... 4.9%
Ind .... 71.3% .... 21.4% ... 7.3%
Rep .... 89.5% .... 6.7% ... 3.8%
78.8% are happy with their vote
15.8% are not happy
5.3% are undecided
What does this mean? If you do the math out based on this poll, and the exit polls from November 2, that means that more Democrats who likely voted for Kerry were unhappy (16.73%) with their vote than Republicans who likely voted for Bush were unhappy (6.23%) with theirs--that's nearly a 3:1 ratio (2.68 to be exact).
Of course, making a broad conclusion based on comparative results of two polls is inherently inaccurate, but from a mathematical perspective, the difference in the happiness of the voters is not insignificant. A better poll question in this regard would be "If you voted for Kerry, are you happy with your vote?" and "If you voted for Bush, are you happy with your vote?"
Interesting results, nonetheless. Does this mean that those unhappy Democrats would have voted for Bush, and those unhappy Republicans would have voted for Kerry? Maybe, maybe not. However, in a "worst case scenario," if all the unhappy Democrats were the Bush voting Democrats, that still leaves 7.8% of Kerry voting Democrats unhappy with their vote, and if all Kerry voting Republicans were the unhappy voters, that would leave a scant number of Bush voting Republicans unhappy with their votes.
Draw any conclusion you wish from this analysis, or make your own. Outside of the imperfection of polls, the results seem to speak for themselves.
Posted by Aaron at July 18, 2005 08:26 PM
Copyright © 2007 by author. May not be copied, published, or otherwise used (except for brief quotes) without express permission of author. Articles published with permission by Pardon My English.
-->Comments
The conclusion I draw is that democrats were not as happy with Kerry than Republicans were happy with Bush. (i know that's a stretch).
Kerry didn't gain the favor of democrats the way Bush gained the favor of republicans, and that, if not the reason he lost, is represntative of why he lost. In the end, he wasn't a strong enough candidate to beat Bush. Yes, he was attacked mercilessly, but in this day and age, all presidential candidates are.
Posted by Tom Shipley
at July 18, 2005 09:39 PM
I think you're more right than you think Tom... in general, Democrats kind of begrugingly voted for Kerry.
Posted by Epoch at July 18, 2005 09:46 PM
Agreed - Kerry's only real appeal (to Democrats), as far as I could make out, was that he wasn't George Bush. I have met very few people who actually liked Kerry.
Posted by Rich at July 18, 2005 10:02 PM
I make it a personal policy not to put any meaning into online polls.
Posted by mattk
at July 19, 2005 02:17 AM
I was a big Kerry fan, but I think Tom has it right. Other interpretations don't really make sense to me. All this poll shows, as far as I can tell, is that some of Dean's supporters, etc, voted for Kerry despite the fact they didn't like the candidate very well.
I don't see how it is in anyway an indication of greater support for Bush now, or that there were Kerry voters who, given the choice now, would vote for Bush instead.
That doesn't make sense to me. You'd have to have a different question to address that issue.
Posted by Reece at July 19, 2005 02:19 AM
Well, it's as I said before. Democrats put all their stock in the wrong guy. If some democrats didn't like Kerry, how do you think the independents and moderate republicans felt... the ones who may have been swayed by a more moderate democrat. This is true for either side, but a more moderate candidate is going to have the best success in the Presidential election... assuming he makes it through the primaries. Since both parties generally want the guy who is most in line with their goals, moderates usually get cut in the primaries... however if you're willing to make some concession and vote for someone who can appeal to both sides... then your party is likely to see their candidate fill the next Presidential seat. How's that saying go? "You've got to give a little to get a little."
Posted by Johnny New Englander
at July 19, 2005 09:34 AM
"Kerry didn't gain the favor of democrats the way Bush gained the favor of republicans, and that, if not the reason he lost, is represntative of why he lost."
I agree and disagree.
I agree that Kerry was not the best candidate, and that many democrats weren't really behind him, and voted for him only 'begrudingly', BUT, they voted for him none the less.
I don't agree that this is why Kerry lost. This election was the highest turn out ever. The highest democrat (and republican) turnout EVER. I don't think Kerry had a problem getting his votes out to the polls, even if they weren't as happy with who they were voting for, they voted.
This undoubtably effects this poll result (democrats saying they are 'not happy' with their vote, but doesn't quite mean they'd vote for Bush either, might even be willing to begrudgingly vote for a turkey sandwich before Bush) but I don't think it was a key to the actual election.
Posted by MJohnson
at July 19, 2005 11:11 AM
MJohnson... the reason Kerry lost was not necessarily because of begrudging votes, but rather because of those swing voters that felt the same way many democrats did and instead chose to give their vote to George W. Bush. This was a very close election and could have easily gone the other way had the democratic candidate appealed to more swing voters. Kerry just couldn't do that.
Posted by Johnny New Englander
at July 19, 2005 12:02 PM
I agree that the general 'suckyness' of Kerry as a canditate probably did effect the outcome in regards to the swing votes, but I don't think it effected the outcome in regards to 'democrat' votes that normally make up the base of the party.
The thing to remember here is there allready is an 'independant' category in this poll. Independants (whomever they voted for) are actually the MOST unhappy at 21.4%, but this discussion has mostly addressed the unhappiness of the self-identified 'democrats' at 18.8% compared to the GOP at 6.7%.
So, yes JNE I agree that it effected 'swing votes'. Do any of these swing voters identify themselves as 'democrats' though, or would they be the 'independants'? So I don't think this poll can really reflect that.
In the election as a whole, yah, I agree it had an effect. Perhaps what I should have said was that it didn't have an effect AMONGST democrats.
Let me reiterate:
"Kerry didn't gain the favor of democrats the way Bush gained the favor of republicans"
Again, I disagree. The democrats voted for him in record numbers whether they were happy about it or not.
The fact that Kerry failed to gain the favor of independant swing voters most certainly DID effect the outcome of the election, but the fact that he failed to gain the favor of democrats, I don't think did. Happy or not, they voted for him anyway, damn near all of them. Turnout wasn't a problem.
Posted by MJohnson
at July 19, 2005 12:26 PM
Just reminds me of a visual that comes out every election time:
Voter goes into the booth, plugs his nose with one hand and pulls the lever with the other. That's how I see this.
Found out recently that my liberal girlfriend actually wrote in Howard Dean instead of going with what the Dems offered up.
Posted by Sarge
at July 20, 2005 02:48 PM
Sarge, you just outed your girlfriend as a dean voter. I'm requesting a special investigation.
Posted by Tom Shipley
at July 20, 2005 05:01 PM
Actually, she outted herself....I just passed on non-classified information to a 3rd party.....hmmmmmm....sounds familiar.
Posted by Sarge
at July 21, 2005 09:17 AM
Sarge;
My God.................youth.
Bill
Posted by Little Bill at July 23, 2005 08:31 PM
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